Australian E-7A Wedgetail Ends Mission Supporting Ukraine After Successful Surveillance Deployment

 The Royal Australian Air Force's E-7A Wedgetail aircraft, part of Operation Kudu aiding Ukrainian forces, is set to return home after a six-month mission in Europe. The Wedgetail played a pivotal role in Ukraine, contributing to the downing of Russian Su-34s, according to experts.

Australia's Defense Ministry announced the E-7A's return, highlighting its mission in providing crucial surveillance over Eastern Europe. The aircraft logged over 250 flight hours, aiding in both military and humanitarian efforts.

Lieutenant General Greg Bilton praised the ADF personnel's support, emphasizing Australia's commitment to upholding global order. Air Marshal Robert Chipman lauded the Wedgetail's capabilities and the dedication of Australian personnel.

While the E-7A's return marks the end of this chapter, Australia's military assistance to Ukraine will continue. Operation Kudu's expanded training element will provide vital support throughout 2024.

Speculation surrounds the E-7A's role in the downing of Russian Su-34s, attributed to its superior capabilities against Russian defenses. Despite Australia's clarification that it did not facilitate attacks, the Wedgetail played a crucial role in safeguarding international aid flow to Ukraine.

Operating outside Russian airspace, the E-7A provided early warnings of potential threats, filling a capability gap NATO couldn't address. With its mission concluding, there will be no gap in Western monitoring capabilities.

MBDA Expresses Frustration Over Delayed Missile Contracts in Germany

 MBDA, a prominent missile manufacturer known for products like the Taurus cruise missile and Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, has voiced dissatisfaction with the German government's sluggishness in finalizing defense contracts. Led by Thomas Gottschild, the German subsidiary of MBDA, the company emphasizes the need for expedited decision-making to meet rising demand.

Gottschild highlights the adverse effects of delayed orders, resulting in a halt in Taurus missile production and disruptions in supplier operations. Resuming production involves reestablishing supply chains, particularly in critical sectors like explosives, to ensure continuity and expertise retention.

Despite challenges, progress is evident in fulfilling state orders for Patriot missiles in collaboration with Raytheon. However, MBDA criticizes Germany's reluctance to supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine amid escalating tensions with Russia.

Ukraine's repeated requests for Taurus missiles, emphasizing their non-aggressive intent, have faced skepticism from the German government. Concerns about inadvertently escalating the conflict and entanglement in war deter Germany from transferring the missiles, despite proposals from allies like Britain to facilitate the transfer indirectly.

While pressure mounts domestically and internationally for Germany to reconsider its stance, Chancellor Scholz remains firm, underscoring the symbolic significance of Taurus missiles amid complex geopolitical dynamics.

Putin's Warning: F-16s Vulnerable to Russian MiG-31s? Analysis & Threat Assessment

 Russian President Vladimir Putin cautioned that US-supplied F-16 Fighting Falcons to Ukraine could become targets if employed against Russian forces from third-party nations' airfields. Putin's statement follows NATO's announcement granting Ukraine authority to deploy F-16s to engage legitimate Russian military targets beyond its borders.

The F-16s, intended to modernize Ukraine's aging fleet and strengthen its air force capabilities, pose a strategic shift towards Western integration and reduced reliance on outdated Soviet-era aircraft.

However, Russia maintains a formidable aerial advantage, primarily through the deployment of MiG-31 fighter jets armed with the long-range R-37M missile. These missiles have proven effective against Ukrainian aircraft, including instances of downing MiG-29s and deterring foreign surveillance aircraft like the Norwegian P-8A Poseidon.

The MiG-31, a legacy aircraft from the Cold War era, boasts advanced digital avionics and a rear-seated weapon systems officer. Equipped with the Zaslon radar, capable of tracking multiple targets simultaneously, the MiG-31 remains a potent air dominance fighter despite its limited close combat capabilities.

Enhancements in the MiG-31BM variant include network-centric combat control, upgraded radar systems, and extended service life. With a focus on multi-role capability, the MiG-31BM can engage air, surface, and ground targets with improved efficiency.

Additionally, the introduction of hypersonic air-to-air missiles like the R-37M and Kinzhal further bolsters Russia's offensive capabilities, posing a significant challenge to Ukraine's air force.

In response, Ukraine's acquisition of surplus F-16s from NATO allies aims to augment its aerial capabilities. However, the F-16s equipped with AIM-120 air-to-air missiles face challenges against the MiG-31/R-37M combination, necessitating upgrades to narrow the capability gap.

Despite the disparity, F-16s could potentially push back MiG-31s, enabling deeper incursions into Russian airspace and enhancing operational effectiveness over occupied territories.

As tensions escalate, the evolving dynamics between Ukraine's F-16s and Russia's MiG-31s underscore the complex geopolitics and strategic considerations at play in the region's airspace.

Greece to Sell F-16s and Mirage-2000s: A Strategic Shift in Air Force Modernization

 

Greece, having previously announced its intention to train Ukrainian fighter pilots on F-16s, has now revealed plans to decommission and sell its outdated F-16 and Mirage 2000 fighter jets. Despite the training program, Greece won't be sending any of these aircraft to Ukraine.

The Greek Defense Minister, Nikos Dendias, disclosed the decision to overhaul the Hellenic Air Force, emphasizing the need to streamline its aircraft types due to maintenance costs. The plan involves retiring F-4s, selling Mirage 2000-5s and Block 30 F-16s, and upgrading remaining F-16s to Viper level, alongside acquiring F-35s and strengthening the fleet of Rafales.

While the modernization aims to enhance uniformity and interoperability, Greece has opted not to offer its older jets to Ukraine, unlike other NATO allies. The US has authorized an $8.6 billion sale of F-35s to Greece, and Greece has agreements with France to purchase Rafales, indicating a strategic shift in its air force capabilities.

The specific aircraft slated for disposal include the F-16s, including the last 34 single-seat F-16C and six two-seat F-16D Block 30 aircraft. Despite Ukraine's pleas for fighter jets, Greece hasn't committed to transferring any, unlike other NATO allies. Greece's aircraft could still be beneficial for Ukraine, although they lack commonality with European F-16 operators.

Greece could potentially aid Ukraine with military equipment like the S-300 air defense systems, as hinted at by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. However, there's no mention of transferring Greek combat aircraft to Ukraine, despite ongoing requests from the Ukrainian side.

UK Decides Fate of Early Typhoon Jets: Scrapping for Parts Amidst Controversy

The UK government has officially declared the destiny of its aging fleet of 30 early production Typhoon jets, known as 'Tranche 1,' putting an end to speculation. Contrary to hopes of repurposing or deploying these jets, the government stands firm on scrapping them for parts. The systematic "Reduce to Produce" program aims to salvage usable components to bolster the spare inventory for the broader Typhoon fleet. This decision has sparked concerns about a potential gap in the country’s defense capability, with debates centering on whether some of these jets should be placed in a war reserve.

Despite suggestions to transfer the Typhoon Tranche 1 jets to Ukraine, logistical challenges and strategic limitations have led to the UK dismissing the idea. Experts highlight issues such as incompatibility with critical missiles, requiring US approval for exports, and challenges in Ukraine's dispersed airbases. The Royal Air Force (RAF) remains confident that the phased withdrawal of these early Typhoon jets will not pose operational challenges, emphasizing the complex considerations involved in supporting Ukraine's defense needs amid the ongoing conflict. 

Russia Added 1500 MBTs To Fight NATO-Backed Ukraine; Tu-160M, IFVs, Subs Also Delivered – Shoigu, Eurasian Times reports

 Amid the Ukraine conflict, Russia has strengthened its military capabilities, delivering 1,530 new and upgraded tanks to the Ground Forces in 2023, partially compensating for the loss of 2,200 tanks since the invasion. The T-90M Proryv main battle tanks, known for survivability, were supplied to offset these losses. In contrast, Ukraine claims to have destroyed over 5,000 Russian tanks during the invasion.

Russia also reinforced its naval forces, adding the nuclear submarine Imperator Aleksandr III and a Borei A-class vessel equipped with Bulava missiles. The Russian Navy received four modern submarines and eight surface ships in the past year.

Aerial capabilities were enhanced with 237 aircraft and helicopters, 86 anti-aircraft weaponry units, and 67 radar sites for the Aerospace Forces. Notably, four Tu-160M strategic bombers were almost fully delivered to the strategic nuclear forces, coinciding with President Vladimir Putin's claim that 95% of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces are equipped with new weapons. The Tu-160M, actively used in the conflict, signifies heightened nuclear posturing. In response, NATO has strengthened its nuclear forces near Russia. These developments underscore escalating geopolitical tensions in the region.

Here is the link to the original article:

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/russia-added-1500-mbts-to-fight-nato-backed-ukraine/

Czech Republic wants to piggyback on German Leopard 2A8 tank buy, Defense News reports

 Czech Defence Minister Jana Černochová has revealed plans for joint negotiations with Germany to acquire Leopard 2A8 tanks, enhancing the procurement process in terms of pricing and delivery time. The collaboration is expected to yield clearer outcomes in the coming year. Previously, the Czech Republic donated T-72 tanks to Ukraine in 2022 and engaged in Berlin's "Ringtausch" program, receiving Leopard 2A4s to maintain combat capabilities. Negotiations for the purchase of up to 77 Leopard 2A8 tanks have been ongoing since July. Additionally, Černochová outlined military acquisition priorities, including the intention to finalize a deal for two C-390 Millennium aircraft from Embraer in 2024 and the imminent conclusion of a contract for 24 F-35s for the Czech Air Force within weeks. These procurement initiatives signify the Czech Republic's commitment to modernizing its military capabilities through strategic partnerships and acquisitions.

Here is the link to the original article:

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/12/20/czech-republic-wants-to-piggyback-on-german-leopard-2a8-tank-buy/

Strain on U.S. Munition Stockpiles: Challenges, Priorities, and the Need for Strategic Planning With China in mind

A Defense News article discusses the strain on U.S. munition stockpiles due to increased demand from Ukraine and Israel. In early 2023, the U.S. transferred artillery shells to Ukraine, but the ongoing conflict has depleted stockpiles, impacting munitions planning. Ukraine's monthly shell expenditure exceeds U.S. monthly production by approximately 3.6 times. Israel's request for 155mm shells further stresses stockpiles. The Pentagon's poor munitions planning raises concerns about its ability to address Indo-Pacific contingencies. Israel has also sought precision-guided munitions, raising questions about U.S. capacity and planning. Wargames indicate potential shortages in high-intensity conflicts with China. The article highlights deficiencies in the Navy's Tomahawk missile inventory and warns of potential challenges in responding to conflicts in multiple regions simultaneously. It emphasizes the need for strategic prioritization, reworking acquisition plans, and promoting multiyear procurement authorities for munitions. The article underscores the importance of addressing long-term munitions challenges to safeguard national interests.

Here is the link to the original article:

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/2023/12/19/the-us-needs-more-munitions-to-deter-china/

Pentagon's Replicator Initiative Faces Skepticism Amid Push for Rapid Drone Deployment

 The Pentagon's Replicator initiative, aiming to deploy thousands of drones in two years to counter China, has garnered mixed reactions. The initiative, announced by Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, faces skepticism as details remain vague. While hailed as innovative, doubts persist about Replicator's ability to navigate bureaucratic barriers and deliver tangible results. Industry leaders, investors, and lawmakers express cautious optimism, emphasizing the need for transparency on funding, procurement processes, and the practicality of deploying drones to deter conflicts, particularly around Taiwan. Replicator's success hinges on overcoming funding challenges, engaging nontraditional companies, and defining clear strategies for selecting and deploying drone systems.

If you want to read the original article, here is the link:

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2023/12/19/replicator-an-inside-look-at-the-pentagons-ambitious-drone-program/

Germany Approves Over $400 Million Worth of 155mm Artillery Shells for Ukraine: Boosting Firepower in the Eastern Conflict

 

In recent developments, Germany has greenlit orders exceeding $400 million for 155mm artillery shells destined for Ukraine. Rheinmetall, a key German defense company, confirmed the German army's order, valued at a minimum of $110 million. Simultaneously, the Defence Ministry announced a separate deal for 68,000 shells with an undisclosed French armament company, amounting to €278 million.

Ukraine, engaged in a conflict with Russia, has been expending up to 7,000 artillery rounds daily, prompting the need for a robust supply chain. The 155mm shells, following NATO standards, are in high demand, as European defense industries struggle to meet production requirements.

Rheinmetall's recent order is part of a comprehensive framework agreement signed in July, encompassing the delivery of shells, fuses, and propellant charges until 2029, with a potential gross order volume reaching €1.2 billion. The company's order backlog for weapons and ammunition has seen a significant increase, exceeding €11.3 billion by the end of September. Rheinmetall plans a substantial production boost in 2024, aiming to achieve an annual capacity of approximately 700,000 artillery rounds.

Additionally, Germany's Defense Ministry approved the acquisition of 68,000 155mm shells from a French manufacturer, with an option for an additional 350,000 rounds. The move highlights Germany's commitment to supporting Ukraine and addressing the critical need for artillery ammunition.

While details about the French manufacturer remain undisclosed, the German government is actively exploring avenues to enhance ammunition production. Discussions include the possibility of opening national framework agreements to partner countries, showcasing a collaborative approach to meet escalating demands.

As the conflict persists in Eastern Europe, these developments underscore the strategic efforts to bolster Ukraine's firepower and navigate the challenges posed by the continuous demand for 155mm artillery shells.

Lithuania's Stalwart Support: Restored Leopard 2 Tanks Ready for Ukraine Deployment

 In a resounding display of solidarity, Lithuania has successfully restored Leopard 2 tanks damaged on the frontlines and is gearing up to transfer them to Ukraine. The Ministry of Defense proudly announced the completion of repairs, showcasing the tanks at Lithuania's Army training ground in Gaižiūnai. This marks a significant stride in Lithuania's unwavering commitment to bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities.

The repaired Leopard 2 tanks, a potent addition to Ukraine's military prowess, are set to arrive next month, reinforcing Lithuania's proactive role in supporting Ukraine's struggle against Russia. Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anušauskas, seated atop one of the tanks, expressed his admiration, stating, "What can I say?... A powerful tank."

These repaired tanks are part of a joint venture called Little Defense Services (LDS), established by major European military equipment manufacturers Rheinmetall and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW). LDS commenced its tank repair operations in October and is expected to continue until the end of next year, underlining Lithuania's commitment to aiding Ukraine's defense efforts.

Lithuania, standing as the sole European nation tasked with the repair of Leopard 2 A6 and A5 tanks, has shown readiness to accept as many tanks as required. Sebastian Dietz, CEO of Lithuania Defense Services, emphasized the diverse combat-related damages addressed during the repairs, including direct hits, mines, drone attacks, and water-related challenges.

This effort follows Lithuania's proactive steps to facilitate the repair and return of the PzH 2000 Self-Propelled Howitzer to Ukraine, another crucial military asset actively involved in combat operations. The country has also contributed financially to the Ukraine Solidarity Fund, aiming to support Ukraine's reconstruction efforts.

As of June 2023, Lithuania has already provided close to one billion euros in military, financial, humanitarian, and reconstruction support, making it the leading global contributor in terms of the percentage of its GDP. This comprehensive assistance includes the transfer of Mi-8 helicopters, L-70 anti-aircraft guns, M113 armored personnel carriers, millions of rounds of ammunition, and grenade launcher ammunition to Ukraine.

Emphasizing ongoing preparations for the impending winter season, Lithuania plans to supply generators and essential equipment to help Ukraine endure the challenging months ahead. The country's multifaceted contribution goes beyond material support, extending to expert advice, international fund contributions, training programs, and participation in NATO-led operations.

In essence, Lithuania's commitment to Ukraine exemplifies a holistic approach, showcasing a dedicated alliance in the face of geopolitical challenges.

Israel's Use of Unguided Munitions Raises Concerns Amid Conflict with Hamas

 In the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, a significant portion of the air-to-ground munitions used by Israel are reportedly unguided, referred to as "dumb bombs." According to an evaluation by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), approximately 40% to 45% of the 29,000 bombs dropped by the Israeli air force since October 7 were unguided, with the rest being precision-guided.

While Israeli officials have not commented on the specific munitions used, reports suggest the deployment of the US-made M117, a Cold War-era unguided 750-pound air-dropped munition. The use of unguided bombs, especially in densely populated areas like Gaza, raises concerns about potential collateral damage and questions about Israel's commitment to minimizing civilian casualties.

The revelation comes amid a public disagreement between the Israeli leadership and the White House. President Joe Biden criticized Israel's tactics, expressing concern over "indiscriminate bombing" and calling for a change in approach. This divergence in views has strained relations between the two allies, with Israel facing international condemnation at the United Nations, where a ceasefire resolution received overwhelming support.

The extensive use of unguided munitions could intensify controversy, particularly regarding civilian casualties. Critics doubt Israel's claims of minimizing harm to civilians, especially given the reported rates of employing unguided bombs. The situation is reminiscent of Russia's use of unguided bombs in the Ukraine war, where concerns were raised about increased civilian casualties.

In contrast to the US, which predominantly uses precision-guided munitions, the choice of unguided bombs by Israel raises questions about its military strategy, cost considerations, and potential implications for civilian safety in conflict zones.

India Casts Wider Net for Short-Range Missiles

NEW DELHI - The Indian Army has entered the global market to buy short-range surface-to-air missile (SRSAM) systems for $1.5 billion, a move that could further undercut a four-year effort to develop a system with MBDA of France.

The Army convinced the Indian Defence Ministry there is an urgent requirement for SRSAM, said Army sources, and did not want to wait for the Maitri project conceived four years ago. India and France have not been able to agree on details of the Maitri project, including funding arrangements, the source added.

The Army last month sent global tenders to defense companies in Europe, the United States and Russia including Raytheon of the U.S., Israel's Rafael, MBDA and Thales of France, Diehl Defence of Germany, KBP Tula and Rosoboronexport of Russia, Ukraineexport of Ukraine and LIG NEX1 of South Korea.

The requirements of the SRSAM are similar to those of the proposed Indo-French Maitri project, the Army source said.

The current tender is for two regiments (36 systems, 1,000 missiles) estimated to cost about $800 million each. The total Indian Army requirement is likely to be about eight regiments in the next five to seven years.

The Maitri project was proposed to be jointly developed by India's Defence Research and Development Laboratory and MBDA.

The selected vendor will have to transfer technology of the systems, as well.

The supply will be made in two batches and completed within five years of the signing of the tender, including the launchers, sensors, vehicles for transportation and the missiles. The system must have a service life of at least 20 years and the missiles of not less than eight years.

The SRSAM system should be able to engage multiple targets, including those flying up to 500 meters per second, and have a maximum range of not less than 15 kilometers.

In 2009, India bought two regiments of Spyder quick-reaction surface-to-air missile systems from Rafael. Another Indo-Israeli joint project is the $2.5 billion long-range surface-to-air missile project signed in 2009 and expected to be inducted in 2013, Indian Defence Ministry sources said.

Meanwhile, the Indian Army has begun inducting the homemade medium-range Akash, which has a range of up to 30 kilometers. In 2011, the Indian Army ordered the induction of two Akash regiments at a cost of about $3 billion.

The Army also has been negotiating the purchase of David Sling and Iron Dome missile interceptor systems.

Finland: Missile Ship Free to Depart Port

HELSINKI - Finland has removed a cargo of 69 Patriot missiles found aboard a merchant ship that docked in the country and allowed the vessel to leave, transport safety officials said Dec. 26.

Thor Liberty was detained Dec. 15 in Kotka, southeast Finland, and was later found to be carrying 150 tons of explosive material, as well as the surface-to-air Patriot missiles and missile propellant charges.

"A Trafi check on 26.12.2011 has revealed that the improperly loaded explosive material has been offloaded from the vessel, with the exception of two properly loaded containers, and the detention order has been lifted," the Finnish Transport Safety Authority Trafi said in a statement.

However Trafi noted that the ship was still unable to continue on its journey because Finnish customs had placed the Ukrainian captain and first mate under a travel ban pending an investigation into the missiles.

Trafi added that customs had also impounded the explosives still on board the ship in two containers.

The missiles, discovered Dec. 21 aboard the British-registered ship, were bound for the Chinese port city of Shanghai, according to Finnish police. Finnish customs are investigating the case as one of illegal export of defense material.

A German defense ministry spokesman said the Patriot missiles, produced by Raytheon, came from the German military and were destined for South Korea.

He said it was a "legal sale on the basis of an accord between two states at the government level." He said the transaction had received an official export authorization and was reported to customs authorities.

However Finland said Dec. 23 it had not received the paperwork required from Germany.

China's First Aircraft Carrier Starts Second Trial

BEIJING - China's first aircraft carrier began its second sea trial on Nov. 29 after undergoing refurbishments and testing, the government said, as tensions over maritime territorial disputes in the region ran high.

The 300-meter (990-foot) ship, a refitted former Soviet carrier called the Varyag, underwent five days of trials in August that sparked international concern about China's widening naval reach.

"China's aircraft carrier platform, after successfully completing its first sea trial in August, returned to the shipyard as planned for further refitting and testing," the defense ministry said in a brief statement.

"The work has been carried out and it set sail again on November 29 to carry out relevant scientific and research experiments."

Beijing only confirmed this year that it was revamping the old Soviet ship and has repeatedly insisted that the carrier poses no threat to its neighbors and will be used mainly for training and research purposes.

But the August sea trials were met with concern from regional powers including Japan and the United States, which called on Beijing to explain why it needs an aircraft carrier.

The Nov. 29 announcement comes against a background of heightened tensions over maritime disputes in the Asia-Pacific region, where China's growing assertiveness has put it on collision course with the United States.

President Barack Obama this month irritated Beijing with a drive to enhance the U.S. role as a regional power, positioning Marines in northern Australia and pushing for a potentially transformational trans-Pacific trade pact.

Beijing sees the initiatives as intruding into its own sphere of influence, with the dispute over the South China Sea putting the two major world powers' differences into stark focus.

China claims all of the strategic area, as does Taiwan, while four Southeast Asian countries declare ownership of parts of it, with Vietnam and the Philippines accusing Beijing's forces of increasing aggression there.

The region is a conduit for more than one-third of the world's seaborne trade and half its traffic in oil and gas, and major petroleum deposits are believed to lie below the seabed.

The announcement of the carrier's second sea trial comes after Beijing said last week it would conduct "routine" naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean before the end of November.

China reportedly bought the carrier's immense armored hull - with no engine, electrics or propeller - from Ukraine in 1998.

The PLA - the world's largest active military - is extremely secretive about its defense programs, which benefit from a huge and expanding military budget boosted by the nation's runaway economic growth.

Earlier this year, China announced military spending would rise 12.7 percent to 601.1 billion yuan ($91.7 billion) in 2011.

NATO Urges Georgia to Deepen Reforms

TBILISI - NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen urged Georgia on Nov. 9 to intensify its political and military reforms to bring the ex-Soviet state closer to membership of the Western alliance.
"Further reforms will be a ticket to membership," Rasmussen told reporters in Tbilisi at the start of his two-day visit to the country.

NATO leaders agreed at their 2008 summit in Bucharest that Georgia and Ukraine could join the military alliance at an unspecified point in the future, although they were denied coveted pre-membership status amid strong opposition from Russia.
"Since the Bucharest summit, Georgia has become a lot closer to NATO but there is still work to be done," Rasmussen said.
He praised the government's reform process but said more must be done to strengthen the rule of law, media freedoms, the judiciary and the electoral process before upcoming polls.
"The elections of 2012 as 2013 will be a litmus test of your democracy," he said, referring to parliamentary and presidential votes over the next two years.
The small Caucasus republic's NATO aspirations have infuriated its powerful neighbor Russia, which fought a brief war with Georgia in 2008.
Seeking to prove itself as a reliable partner, Georgia has become one of the largest non-NATO contributors to the Western alliance-led mission in Afghanistan, deploying more than 900 troops to help combat the Taliban.
"That is a priceless contribution and the best proof of your commitment to our alliance," Rasmussen said.
NATO membership is a key goal for the pro-Western government led by President Mikheil Saakashvili and has strong public support amid Tbilisi's continuing disputes with Moscow.
"Georgia's NATO aspirations... are a consensus within the whole Georgian society and the whole Georgian political spectrum," Prime Minister Nika Gilauri said at the media briefing with Rasmussen.
But opposition critics accuse the authorities of flouting democratic principles and argue that the 2008 war set back hopes of joining the alliance.

Sea Trials Begin for Chinese Aircraft Carrier

TAIPEI - China's state-run Xinhua News Agency announced Aug. 10 the beginning of sea trials for China's first aircraft carrier, the former Soviet aircraft carrier Varyag.

China's first aircraft carrier, the former Soviet carrier Varyag which China bought from Ukraine in 1998, undergoes refitting at the port of Dalian on July 4. The aircraft carrier started its first sea trial Aug. 10, the state news agency Xinhua said (AFP)

"China's refitted aircraft carrier left its shipyard at Dalian Port in northeast Liaoning Province on Wednesday morning to start its first sea trial," said the Xinhua report. "Military sources said that the first sea trial was in line with schedule of the carrier's refitting project and would not take a long time. After returning from the sea trial, the aircraft carrier will continue refit and test work."

Photos of the Varyag indicate it has been outfitted with an active phased array radar (similar to the U.S. Aegis System), a Type 381 Sea Eagle Radar, a 30mm Type-1030 close-in weapon system, and an FL-3000 Flying Leopard air defense missile system.
The large number of personnel on board recently and the testing of the engines, with smoke belching from the funnel, indicate that the propulsion systems have been installed and the ship is reaching seaworthiness, said Gary Li, an intelligence analyst for U.K.-based Exclusive Analysis.
Debate and mystery still surround the former Kuznetsov-class carrier. Procured by a Hong Kong travel agency in 1998 for $20 million, purportedly to serve as a casino in Macau, the Varyag has been the focus of debate among China watchers ever since it bypassed Macau for the Dalian Shipyard in northeast China in 2002.
The Chinese-language media are still arguing over whether the vessel will be christened the Shi Lang, after the Ming-Qing Dynasty naval admiral who conquered Taiwan in 1681, or Liu Huaqing, the father of China's modern Navy.
What is certain is that it will not be the last Chinese aircraft carrier. There are indicators, though anecdotal, that China is preparing to build up to three carriers at the Jiangnan Shipyard on Changxing Island in Shanghai.
Job-wanted advertisements in local newspapers have dropped hints the work is for a carrier program, Li said.
Li said one recent job advertisement for a heavy-lift vehicle contract said it sought "drivers to work on carrier project." There have also been reports by residents that "blonde foreigners," possibly Ukrainian engineers, have been seen living in a hotel near the shipyard.
Observers must be careful not "to fall into the trap of using every bit of gossip from some dockside fruit seller as fact," he said. China's carrier program has become a "heavy rumor mill." With 11 aircraft carriers at its disposal, the U.S. has little to fear from China's carrier program. Even if China had several aircraft carriers, "I don't think it will reshape the strategic balance much in favor of China," said Zhuang Jianzhong, vice director of the Center for National Strategy Studies at Shanghai Jiao Tong University.
However, Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam face a different scenario. China has threatened to invade Taiwan if it continues to resist unification. An aircraft carrier off Taiwan's eastern coast would close off access by the U.S. military coming to the island's aid during a war.
Vietnam and the Philippines have been facing problems with an aggressive Chinese Navy in the South China Sea, which China claims as a "core interest." On Aug. 3, the People's Daily, China's main Communist Party newspaper, warned the Philippines against building a shelter on the disputed Nansha Island in the Spratly Islands, calling it "a severe strategic error." As part of Vietnam's insurance against continued Chinese threats, the Navy is procuring Russian arms, including six Kilo-class attack submarines, two Gepard-class missile frigates and 20 more Sukhoi Su-30 fighter aircraft armed with anti-ship missiles. Vietnam's Navy has five aging Russian-built Petya-class frigates, two North Korean-built Yugo-class midget submarines, along with several missile corvettes. Any conflict between the navies of China and the Philippines or Vietnam would be an "unequal contest," said Carl Thayer, a Southeast Asia specialist at the Australian Defence Force Academy.
"China's South Sea Fleet should be quite capable in fending off any threats that Vietnam could offer. The Philippines Navy in its present state would be destroyed at a distance due to lack of sensors, appropriate strike weapons and air cover," Thayer said.
At present, the Vietnamese could land some punches, he said.
"Vietnam might be able to pull off a few surprises through deception with hit-and-run raids by guidedmissile fast-attack craft or by luring Chinese ships into range of its Bastion land-based anti-ship missiles," he said.
Vietnam possesses some "potent" anti-ship missiles but lacks the experience to stand up to China's South Sea Fleet.
Such a conflict would most likely occur with sufficient warning time for the Philippines and Vietnam to withdraw their naval forces and not engage in a head-to-head naval confrontation, Thayer said.
"The United States has promised to assist the Philippines with maritime domain awareness, and it is not inconceivable that the U.S. might forewarn Vietnam if China began to build up and deploy a naval force on Hainan Island," he said.
Chinese plans to field one or more aircraft carriers would change the equation. China's South Sea Fleet has already been improving 3-D combat at sea - surface, subsurface and air - with numerous exercises over the past two years. China could also bring in elements from the East and North Sea fleets to assist in any sea battle in the South China Sea.

CHRONOLOGY

* 1992: Soviet Union stops construction of the Varyag, a former Kuznetsov-class carrier, at 60 percent complete.Ownership is later transferred to Ukraine.
* April 1998: Ukraine puts the Varyag up for auction. The Chong Lot Travel Agency procures the ship for $20 million for use as a "casino" in Macau.
* 2001: Ukraine sells a prototype of the Sukhoi Su-33 carrier-borne fighter jet to Shenyang Aircraft Corp.
* March 2002: Vessel arrives in Dalian Shipyard, China.
* June 2005: Refurbishment begins.
* September 2008: The PLA Daily newspaper announces that 50 pilots were inducted at the Dalian Naval Academy to undergo training on ship-borne aircraft flight.
* 2009: A mock-up of the Varyag is constructed at the Wuhan Naval Research Facility near Huangjie Lake, Wuhan, China.
* 2010: Photos surface of the J-15 Flying Shark, which is identical to the Su-33.
* 2011: April: A People's Daily website reports the Varyag has entered its last stage, with the hull being painted light gray-blue, standard for all ships in the Chinese Navy.
* June 7: Gen. Chen Bingde, chief of the General Staff of the People's Liberation Army, admits in a newspaper interview with the Chinese-language Hong Kong Commercial Daily that China has an aircraft carrier program.
* July 27: The Chinese Defense Ministry officially confirms the Varyag is being refitted as a "scientific research, experiment and training" vessel.
* July 29: Gen. Luo Yuan, a senior researcher with the Academy of Military Sciences, tells the Beijing News that China would need a minimum of three aircraft carriers.