SIPRI: New START Unlikely to Have Short-Term Effect

HELSINKI, Finland - The recent New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty is unlikely to much alter the nuclear landscape in the short term, said SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research institute), the Stockholm-based think tank.
New START calls for slowly paring the U.S. and Russian arsenals to 1,500 warheads from the nearly 5,000 currently deployed, which includes some 2,000 on high alert, SIPRI notes in its 2011 Yearbook, released on June 7.

"It's a stretch to say that the New START cuts agreed by the U.S. and Russia are a genuine step toward nuclear disarmament when their planning for nuclear forces is done on a time scale that encompasses decades, and when nuclear modernization is a major priority in their defense policies," Shannon Kile, a senior research analyst with SIPRI, said in a statement.
The think tank remains skeptical about the desire for meaningful short-term disarmament by the eight nuclear powers.
"The five legally recognized nuclear weapons states, as defined by the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty, are either deploying new nuclear weapon systems or have announced their intention to do so," says SIPRI, referring to the Britain, China, France, Russia and the U.S.
India and Pakistan are expanding their ability to make weapons-grade nuclear material, said SIPRI director Daniel Nord.
"South Asia is the only place in the world where you have a nuclear weapons arms race," Nord said.
SIPRI estimates that more than 20,500 warheads are in the arsenals of the world's eight nuclear powers: Britain, China, France, India, Israel, Pakistan, Russia, and the United States. Russia has 11,000, including 2,427 deployed, while the United States has 8,500, including 2,150 deployed, according to SIPRI estimates.

Global Spending 2010

The SIPRI report also included estimates of countries' defense spending.
It said Brazil, China, India, Russia, South Africa and Turkey are re-emerging as regional powers, with all but Turkey boosting their defense spending.
SIPRI estimates global military expenditure in 2010 rose 1.3 percent in real terms to $1.630 trillion. That's slower than recent years, which the think tank blames on the global economic crisis.
Military spending rose 5.8 percent in South America, 5.2 in Africa, and 4.1 in Oceania, a region dominated by Australia and New Zealand.
The biggest spender, the United States, spent almost six times more than China, its nearest rival, up to $698 billion in 2010.
Rounding out the top 10 were Britain, France, Russia, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Germany, India and Italy.