ISLAMABAD - Washington should pressure Pakistan to curtail its accelerating efforts to enrich plutonium, the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) says in a new report.
The May 16 report says Pakistan's program "is by itself an inherent nuclear material security risk" that "complicates efforts to agree on a Fissile Materials Cut-off Treaty (FMCT)." The Washington-based think tank also says the country has excessive plutonium stocks.
The report recommends the Obama administration "publicly insist that Pakistan halt construction."
"Congress should condition a fraction of U.S. aid on Pakistan announcing a moratorium on further construction and agreeing to a FMCT," the report said.
The report compares GeoEye satellite images of the fourth reactor site at the Khushab enrichment facility taken on Jan. 15 and April 20. It said the pace of construction was likely to be faster than on the previous reactors, and that the new reactor could be active in "a few years," depending on the progress of its "overseas illicit procurement of goods for this reactor."
An earlier ISIS report from April 14 cited some of these efforts.
Once operational, the four reactors at Khushab "will roughly double Pakistan's annual ability to build nuclear weapons to about 19-26 nuclear weapons per year."
ISIS has long documented Pakistan's nuclear program, but this is the first time it has openly asked Washington to try to slow its progress.
Mansoor Ahmed, a lecturer with the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at Islamabad's Quaid-e-Azam University, said the report shows a double standard in responses to Pakistan's and India's nuclear efforts.
Ahmed said the three reactors at Khushab can produce 50 megawatts apiece, and can produce 9 to 12 kilograms of plutonium annually, while India is working on a second 100-megawatt thermal plutonium production reactor and has 950 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium and 11.5 tons of weapon-usable, reactor-grade plutonium.
"Assuming five kilograms of weapon-grade and 10 kilograms of reactor-grade plutonium per weapon, these stocks are sufficient for India to develop 190 and 1,150 nuclear warheads, respectively," he said.
Ahmed also noted that the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal means India "can potentially add 1,250 [kilograms] of weapon-usable, reactor-grade plutonium from its eight unsafeguarded heavy water power reactors, 130 [kilograms] of weapon-grade plutonium from each of its five existing and planned unsafeguarded fast-breeder reactors to its existing stocks of fissile material each year."
Ultimately, Pakistan's efforts are a question of maintaining the credibility of its deterrent.
Ahmed said, "Pakistan will have to maintain the credibility of its minimum deterrent, which is dynamic and sensitive to the threat perception emanating from India's potential to massively increase its nuclear arsenal in the near future, and is not a manifestation of engaging into a nuclear arms buildup, which it does not desire, nor can it afford."
The May 16 report says Pakistan's program "is by itself an inherent nuclear material security risk" that "complicates efforts to agree on a Fissile Materials Cut-off Treaty (FMCT)." The Washington-based think tank also says the country has excessive plutonium stocks.
The report recommends the Obama administration "publicly insist that Pakistan halt construction."
"Congress should condition a fraction of U.S. aid on Pakistan announcing a moratorium on further construction and agreeing to a FMCT," the report said.
The report compares GeoEye satellite images of the fourth reactor site at the Khushab enrichment facility taken on Jan. 15 and April 20. It said the pace of construction was likely to be faster than on the previous reactors, and that the new reactor could be active in "a few years," depending on the progress of its "overseas illicit procurement of goods for this reactor."
An earlier ISIS report from April 14 cited some of these efforts.
Once operational, the four reactors at Khushab "will roughly double Pakistan's annual ability to build nuclear weapons to about 19-26 nuclear weapons per year."
ISIS has long documented Pakistan's nuclear program, but this is the first time it has openly asked Washington to try to slow its progress.
Mansoor Ahmed, a lecturer with the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at Islamabad's Quaid-e-Azam University, said the report shows a double standard in responses to Pakistan's and India's nuclear efforts.
Ahmed said the three reactors at Khushab can produce 50 megawatts apiece, and can produce 9 to 12 kilograms of plutonium annually, while India is working on a second 100-megawatt thermal plutonium production reactor and has 950 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium and 11.5 tons of weapon-usable, reactor-grade plutonium.
"Assuming five kilograms of weapon-grade and 10 kilograms of reactor-grade plutonium per weapon, these stocks are sufficient for India to develop 190 and 1,150 nuclear warheads, respectively," he said.
Ahmed also noted that the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal means India "can potentially add 1,250 [kilograms] of weapon-usable, reactor-grade plutonium from its eight unsafeguarded heavy water power reactors, 130 [kilograms] of weapon-grade plutonium from each of its five existing and planned unsafeguarded fast-breeder reactors to its existing stocks of fissile material each year."
Ultimately, Pakistan's efforts are a question of maintaining the credibility of its deterrent.
Ahmed said, "Pakistan will have to maintain the credibility of its minimum deterrent, which is dynamic and sensitive to the threat perception emanating from India's potential to massively increase its nuclear arsenal in the near future, and is not a manifestation of engaging into a nuclear arms buildup, which it does not desire, nor can it afford."
No comments:
Post a Comment